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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-10-25T05:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-10-25T05:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18057/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with an eruption and B3.7 flare from AR 12887 (near S28E38) taking place around 2021-10-25T03:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/304 and in STEREO A EUVI 195. The CME is faintly visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and as a faint halo in a few frames of STEREO A COR2 difference imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-29T02:53Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

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% Compiled module: EAM
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Most pr. speed =  369.0 km/sec
The EAM version you are running is: v2
u_r =      420.479
Acceleration:      0.105238
Duration in seconds:        335870.97
Duration in days:        3.8873954
t2 is negative
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Acceleration of the CME:   0.11 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  455.8 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 29/10/2021 Time: 02:53 UT
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Lead Time: 62.88 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-10-26T12:00Z

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